In the backdrop of intense diplomatic-military engagement between India and China to resolve the East Ladakh LAC, all eyes are on a possible physical meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of SCO summit in Samarkand on September 15-16.
The meeting is fraught with possibilities as the two leaders resolved the Doklam stand-off at an impromptu meeting on the side-lines of the G-20 Summit in Hamburg on July 7, 2017. The two leaders have not had a physical interaction since 11th BRICS summit in Brasilia on November 13, 2019. The bilateral ties between the two countries took a huge down-turn after PLA decided to change the ground position on the north banks of Pangong Tso on May 5, 2020, and then at Galwan, Khugrang nullah, Gogra-Hot Springs in East Ladakh sector on May 17, 2020.
With India scheduled to take presidency of the SCO from Uzbekistan this year, PM Modi will be interacting with all the leaders at the SCO including Russian President Vladimir Putin and even a courtesy meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is possible.
An indication of things to come will be clear when External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar goes to Samarkand next week to attend the Foreign Minister’s meeting on July 29-29. While Jaishankar met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on July 7 on sidelines of G-20 ministerial in Bali and discussed the ways to normalize bilateral ties by first disengaging the two armies from the Ladakh LAC, another meeting with State Councilor Wang is possible as the India-China military commanders had the 16th round of dialogue on July 17. That the dialogue is going in the right direction to resolve the LAC friction is evident from the fact that both sides issued a joint statement, a rarity these days from the Chinese side as they are given to their own interpretations.
The joint statement after July 17 meeting said: “The two sides reaffirmed that the resolution of remaining issues would help in restoration of peace and tranquility along the LAC in the western sector and enable progress in bilateral relations.” The joint statement was a change from Jaishankar-Wang meeting in Bali as both sides issued separate statements on the engagement.
A possible side-show next week could be the meeting between EAM Jaishankar and Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Zardari. With no change in Pakistan attitude either on terrorism or on Jammu and Kashmir, hardly any movement is expected in what could be a courtesy meeting.
However, the key meeting will be between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping as the latter being the Chairman of the all- powerful Central Military Commission could direct the PLA to resolve the Ladakh LAC issues with the Indian Army and pave a way towards restoration of bilateral ties.
While Indian Army since the May 2020 incidents has ensured that it does not take any step to change the ground position on the LAC, the PLA needs to restore April 2020 status quo ante at patrolling point 15 or Khugrang Nullah and restore patrolling rights in Depsang Bulge near DBO and Charding Nullah Junction in Demchok. If the all powerful President Xi with PLA directly under his control decides to roll back the friction, then the two countries can move towards economic engagement and collaboration on Climate Change.