The Omicron variant of coronavirus could cause between 24,700 to 74,800 deaths in the United Kingdom by April end, according to a new modelling study. The researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine suggest that the new variant of concern, which was first identified in South Africa, has the potential to cause a wave of transmission that could lead to a higher number of infections and hospitalisations than those witnessed during January 2021 in the event of no additional control measures over and above the current ‘Plan B’ policy in England.
The researchers have projected the levels of infections, hospital admissions and Covid-related death for all scenarios based on the measures taken by the government. Citing the “most optimistic scenario” which includes low immune escape and high effectiveness of boosters, the study suggests that the wave of infection from Omicron could witness a peak of over 2,000 daily hospital admissions. It has projected 175,000 hospitalisations and 24,700 deaths by April 30, 2022, for this scenario.
In case of high immune escape of Omicron and lower effectiveness of boosters, the wave of infection could lead to a peak in hospital admissions around twice as high as the peak seen in January 2021. The researchers, considering the most pessimistic scenario, have projected 492,000 hospitalisations and 74,800 deaths by April. They estimate stronger measures may be required to keep the peak of hospital admissions due to Omicron below the January 2021 peak.
“In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home. However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed,” Dr Rosanna Barnard, the co-author of the study, said in a statement.
“Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough,” Barnard added.
The study is yet to be peer-reviewed and currently available in preprint.